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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2017-05-13T22:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2017-05-13T22:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/12555/-1
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2017-05-17T20:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 40.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

:Issued: 2017 May 15 1350 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE  from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)         #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
Faint and slow partial halo CME, with projected speed of about 140 km/s and angular width of about 170 degree, was observed on May 13. 
The CME, first seen in the SOHO LASCO C2 field of view at about 22:00 UT, seem to be associated with the faint filament eruption from the southern solar hemisphere. The bulk of the CME mass was directed southward of the Sun-Earth line, and we can expect only the glancing blow from the associated CME-driven shock wave, sometime during the May 17 or even early on May 18.
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Lead Time: 54.17 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2017-05-15T13:50Z

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